Why Rudd will win … eventually
there is one over-riding question for my caucus colleagues, and that is, who is best placed to defeat Tony Abbott at the next election? Mr Abbott, I believe, does not have the temperament or the experience to ever be elected and hold the office – the high office – of Prime Minister of Australia. But at present, and for a long time now, he’s been on track just to do that.
That’s how Kevin Rudd rounded off his speech explaining why he was resigning as Foreign Minister. It’s a clear message to his ALP colleagues - ”I will give Tony Abbott a real run for his money at the next election but, if you stick with Julia Gillard, there is no hope.”
And he’s right. And that’s why he will get the job back from the person that took it from him. Maybe not on Monday. My guess is he’ll be ringing around to gauge his level of support and if he’s got as many as, say, 40 out of 103, then he’ll challenge when Gillard calls the spill – the one she’s now locked into calling. Even if he loses that vote (and he probably will) the damage will be done and it will only take another bad opinion poll, or another stuff up, for the Gillard supporters to give her the marching orders.
Alternatively, Rudd may not contest the leadership on Monday at all and , instead, prefer to wait her out. And why should he put his hand up if he only has 20 or 30 current supporters? Gillard and her key Ministers like Crean & Swan are the ones who have brought this to a head by going very much on the attack this week including (so it seems) releasing that video of Rudd swearing. If Rudd thinks he needs more time he’ll take it. And leave Gillard with egg on her face and a hollow, meaningless victory.
Rudd is certain to be PM sometime this year.
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And for once Abbott shuts his big trap and lets the ALP self destruct.
Let’s chuck Penny Wong into the mix.
The alternative to Gillard is not Rudd, but Abbott.
Barnaby Joyce has neatly summed up the situation:
“All Labor needs is 2 cases of beer and a belly dancer and it will be the wildest show in town, actually don’t worry about the belly dancer.”
Of course, he doesn’t know about our goats.
This has been brought on by the very same people who removed Rudd in the first place – Gillard and her namby pamby group of chardonnay ‘socialists’. They are not honest people. They act in self interest. And they delude themselves that they’re doing a good job. People like Shorten, Burke, Roxon, Emerson and other sycophants. This is their doing – they’ve split the party so they should go. Bring back Rudd.
There’s a lot of opinions circulating right now. I feel this one is closer to reality than most: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/rudd-turns-to-the-people-not-the-party-20120223-1tpf8.html
I only partially agree with that Age opinion, Noel.
I agree with the bit that says Rudd is appealling to his colleagues via his voter popularity. Well, why shouldn’t he? Politics is about winning. I also agree with this:
Yes, those people have taken the extraordinary step of publicly trashing Rudd’s reputation. And now Gillard has joined them. They are the ones doing damage to the party, not Rudd.
But I don’t agree with this conclusion:
Bullshit. Rudd was left with no option. And he did NOT “denounce” the Prime Minister – he simply said that he did not believe she could win the next election. That’s all. Contrast Rudd’s reserved statements (and those of his supporters) to Gillard & co. If I were a backbencher I know who I’d see as the better leader. The one who is the victim of all the smearing.
Gillard is a political dill! Her “job application” (including constant repititions) to the captive audience of journo’s and the wider public who have have no vote at all in the process of electing a leader of the Parliamentary Federal Labor Party was an excercise in futility and self agrandisement. Perhaps she thought that the voters would contact their federal labor members and pressure them to vote for her. Fat chance of that being of any influence at all as like all politicians they are only interested in their personal ambitions and only do the bidding of the electors if it aligns with that. “It’s time” (to reuse an old slogan) for an election to clear the air and hopefully our political masters will get back to running the country for all the people without keeping one eye on any personal political advantage.
I think she was trying to copy Rudd’s tactic in that regard, Herb. And I agree that was pointless because more people want her out than in, whereas with Rudd, it’s the opposite. As for it being “time for an election”, well, that’s what Abbott and his supporters would want because, right now, Abbott would win in a landslide. Abbott has been wise to stay out of the limelight and I think that’s because he doesn’t want to see Rudd get back in.
That may be the case Ray but in reality the internal manouverings of the Labor Party are the business of the Labor Party. Abbott is politically astute enought to keep his nose out of affairs where there is no political advantage for him and where there is also a real risk of being accused of meddling for personal gain. This is unlike that waste of political space, Rob Oakeshott who has come out today saying that in the case of a change of Labor leadership he would also “consult with Malcolm Turnbull and even Tony Abbott” as to whether they could provide stable government. This is a blatant attempt to stir up differences on the conservative side of politics on a divide and rule strategy aimed at preserving his role as a kingmaker and is pure “figjam”. The National Party certainly knew what they were doing when let this clown go. He should enjoy his moment in the sun whilst he can because he is certainly facing a very long and cold political winter!
Hmmm, I actually think Rudd is on the right track to keep pointing out that he’s very popular with the voters, Herb. It’s bound to sway a few ALP backbenchers. Ministers too – it’s a secret ballot, don’t forget. They can publicly can him (as they’ve done) but still vote for him as an act of self preservation.
As for Oakeshott, I seriously believe the independents are irrelevant to all this. They might talk tough and pretend to have an influence but the reality is they will stay with Labor because that’s the only way they’ll keep their seats. They don’t want an early election, which Abbott has promised them if they withdraw support for the current government. That’s not very clever of Abbott to state that.
Yes it was probably not too smart to offer that bunch of egomaniacs the chance to do the honorable thing and let the people decide it all at an election. They are much too self interested and power happy for that. The wild card is what would happen if Rudd loses and then resigns from parliament? That would then open a whole new can of worms and might possibly help his friend Anna Bligh in the Queensland state election. Time will tell and there are a lot more twists to this tale yet to run. There could even be a split in the party like happened with the DLP in the fifties. What we have here are large egos and personal animosity that has become so nasty and poisonous that anything is possible. Finally I understand that the ballot for the leadership of the Parliamentary Labor Party is only held in secret if the meeting so decides. The “comrades” are not great fans of secret ballots in any case so I doubt that it will go that way. They do like to know who voted which way for future reference and possible payback.
If it’s not a secret ballot (and I’ve heard caucus members say it will be), then Rudd will probably not nominate on the (high moral) grounds that he doesn’t want any retribution taken against those who vote for him . He’s already suggested that threats are being made. He can then keep his powder dry and try again later. As sure as night follows day, Gillard will eventually be dumped – because she can’t win an election. But I seriously doubt Rudd would bring the government down by resigning and causing a by-election.
WOW.
RUDD’s SPEECH.
The most powerful ever.
He’s also demanded a secret ballot.
Game almost over for Gillard. She can’t top that. She might hang on, on Monday but, not for long.
Yeah, but, quoting from The Age:
Mr Rudd confirmed that if he did not win on Monday, he would give up all leadership ambitions.
”I would go to the backbench and I will not challenge Julia a second time,” he said.
Game over? I don’t think so. His numbers in Caucus are currently around (again quoting from The Age):
Gillard 68 (leaning 3) | Rudd 29 (leaning 3)
Noel, if he gets 30 or more votes he won’t need to directly challenge her again. That’s a big enough platform on which to sit until the party members come to grips with the fact (down the track) that Gillard cannot win the next election, and they let her know that she no longer has their support. He’d then be drafted in unopposed .
And Gillard just says “I get things done”. Well, an office supervisor gets things done too, but we don’t want an office supervisor as PM. The thing she can’t get done is this: win the next election. Gillard was a good Minister but she should never have been given the word “Prime” to go in front of that title.
Ray, if Krudd is defeated and he lives up to his promise not to challenge again, the boil is lanced. Gillard can then concentrate on running the country. If she flops then Labor is stuffed. It’s probably stuffed now and given that Krudd is about as popular as the rats under the house with the majority of his cabinet colleagues, there’s precious little talent on the Labor backbenches to fill the gaps if he ever gets the top job in the current Parliament.
We’re probably 18 months or less from the next election. Every day that passes with Gillard in power and getting on with the job gives Krudd less & less time to get back into the role he covets. If the proverbial hit the fan it would have to happen sooner rather than later. And you can lay odds that the Mad Monk will go into overdrive after next Monday buttering up the Independents and creating havoc.
That means more instability and frankly the voting public are sick of the whole sorry mess. Herb touched on the possibility of Krudd resigning his seat thus forcing an election. He’d probably stand again knowing him. If by a miracle he was returned I question whether he could get back into a senior role in the parliamentary party. He certainly wouldn’t be returned as PM. Who’d work with him?
Frankly, the sooner he goes for good the better!
Noel, I think it’s best to answer you in point form:
1. Rudd doesn’t have to “live up to his promise” not to challenge again. This is politics.
2. Gillard has already flopped and cannot win the next election. She’s only a good administrator but she’s no leader and cannot sell her government to the people. She’s also untrustworthy.
3. It’s unlikely, therefore, that Gillard will lead the ALP to the next election.
4. Abbott has no hope of convincing the independents to support him but, moreover, he has already said he won’t form a government with them.
5. There is no chance that Rudd would pull the pin and go down in history as the bloke who brought the ALP government undone by forcing an early election. He’s not the type to do that.
6. Frankly, the sooner Rudd becomes PM again the better.
Your point 1: That is Krudd all over and reinforces my earlier point.
Point 2: She now has a chance.
Point 3: That’s possible but further instability simply deepens Labor’s grave.
Point 4: As you said, “this is politics”. I recall Abbott making some crude remark about his anatomy,. If anything, he’s more ambitious than Krudd.
Point 5: Wanna bet?
Point 6: Yeah – we’d have a repeat of Krudd Mark 1.
Incidentally, read this article by David Marr. He’s the bloke who wrote an expose on Krudd’s character back:in 2010:
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/politics/total-candour-was-only-way-to-stop-him-20120223-1tqs9.html
Noel, there is no obligation on Rudd not to rechallenge if Gillard continues to poll the ALP at around 30%. Remember Keating? After his first (failed) challenge he also said he wouldn’t challenge again. It is not a negative on Rudd if he goes back on his word and tries it again – that is the nature of politics; it’s about seizing power.
And how does Gillard “now have a chance”? To beat Abbott? To win an election? Give me a break – Gillard is shot and the ALP will be wiped out if she goes to the next election as PM.
Yes, I will bet you that Rudd won’t ‘do the dirty’ on the party. How much?
As for David Marr, no, I won’t read what that lightweight has to say about Rudd. He’s a spoiler. A fool. An incomplete man.