AFL finals week 1 ‘expert’ tips
Collingwood has called up Didak & Dick for the big game.
The A.O. tipping contest starts again
I guess Baldrick is never going to pay the $5,000 that he owes me after I won the home & away tipping contest 121 – 120. So we might as well keep it going (double or nothing?). It’s finally finals time, and the good part is we don’t have to talk about all the crap teams that missed out, like Hawthorn, Hawthorn, Hawthorn and … Hawthorn (geezus that Clarkson’s got a foul mouth, hasn’t he?). Here are my ‘expert’ tips. Everyone is welcome to add theirs in the comments ~ the overall winner of the A.O. 2009 finals series tipping comp. gets $5,000 (from Baldrick):
Adelaidev Essendon : Comfortably. Very comfortably. I predict the Crows will win by at least 50 pts here. Good effort by Essendon just to get there but that’s all she wrote. Essendon have about as much chance of winning this as Tim Holding does of winning ‘mountaineer of the year’.
Geelong v Bulldogs : And Geelong were worried about playing Collingwood? I think they’ve actually got a harder game against a side that is so hungry for finals success they’d even climb Mt Feathertop barefoot … and survive. Geelong’s problem is the fitness of several key players – they might stay with them for 3 quarters but in the final term they’ll tire and be over-run by a Footscray side that is full of beans.
Brisbane v Carlton : Well I hope so. The only worry is that a few key Brisbane players are under an injury cloud. But Carlton have already conceded that they’re not a real premiership contender and were just content to make the finals, so just how motivated will they be to win? I think we saw a glimpse of that attitude last week when they let Adelaide (not renowned for high scores) kick a 2009 record score against them. Yes, we “know they’re coming” … for an early ‘Mad Monday’.
St Kildav Collingwood : The Saints will have to go up a few notches after taking it rather easy over the final 3 games ~ but I think that’s ‘the plan’. Look for St Kilda to bounce out of the blocks and take a strong early grip on the game. Our record against Collingwood in big games is pretty good. In fact you have to go back to prior to the Saints’ 1966 Grand Final win (over Collingwood) to find the last time the Pies beat us in a finals game. We cleaned them up last year and knocked them out of the race, so here’s hoping we do it again.
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I agree with that, but some of those games could be very close, especially the 2nd and 4th.
And all on FTA TV, thanks Southern Cross.
I don’t have time to tip, I’m outside in the cold under Star Bridge cap in hand collecting $5,000.
Rox, no faith in the Bombers?
Baldrick, no faith in the Cats?
None whatsoever.
I wonder if Stuart will take the rather attractive $7 plus odds on offer for Essendon? They’re not incapable of surprising.
From the Herald-Sun
BREAKING NEWS: ANTHONY Rocca is back in the Collingwood squad for Sunday’s preliminary final against St Kilda at the MCG.
Oh bring it on. They probably think he’ll kick 8 goals against Zac Dawson like he did when Zac debuted for Hawthorn 3 or 4 years ago. Yeah, bring him in – Zac will keep him kickless.
Ray I wouldn’t back Essendon with monopoly money.
Yoy can’t bet points in with confidence in finals games because percentage does’t matter. I think Geelong all up the Saints is the way to go.
What does “Geelong all up the Saints” mean, Stuart?
Btw, what do think about C’wood bringing Rocca in? He won’t get a touch.
Put $100 on Geelong @ $1.80 then with the $180 put it all Saints @ $1.60, at those odds you either collect $288 or lose $100.
Maybe they’ll give Rocca the tagging job on Dawson, in which case I would move Dawson forward, after all Rocca doesn’t chase. I think it’s just a Malthouse ploy to unsettle Dawson.
I don’t see it how it would unsettle Dawson. Maybe it’s designed to keep Hudghton out of the side.
{—This is an edited version of a comment made by ‘Son of Trev’—}
Author : Son of Trev (IP: 124.191.105.93 , CPE-124-191-105-93.vic.bigpond.net.au)
E-mail : trevjunior@gmail.com
Comment:
Dixon you know all c—, you just keep talking up your beloved football team, it will make it all the more sweeter when I come back here and rub your nose in it after they flop. There are reasons why Saint Kilda has only ever won one flag. One of them is that they are a shit club. The other is that you support them.
Yeah right, Son of Trev, anything else you want to add? Look, if you want to tone it down I’m quite happy for you to comment here without moderation, even though you’re a bit loopy. Cheers, Ray
Golly, who hates you in Werribee?
Why Werribee, Rox?
IP
http://whatismyipaddress.com/staticpages/index.php/lookup-results
Oh that. I never bother searching IP addresses, Rox. I can understand why some people might but I’m just not interested in finding out.
The only reason I put the WorPress comment up showing the IP address was to embarrass ‘Son of Trev’. His little circle of mates will know who he is but I don’t … and I don’t care.
Maybe Son of Trev is a Collingwood supporter and took exception to my photo of Didak & Dick? Wait until I put Rocca’s photo up !!!
Half time, game over. Essendon totally out-classed.
Son of Trev could be son of Sam.
Re Werribee uncontrolled delinquents run the joint. Thenthey get older and breed.
Isn’t Werribee Collingwood’s reserves team? Maybe that was big Rocca posting… In any event, I just put my home IP into that site and apparently I live 80kms away, so maybe not completely reliable.
Not watching Essendon get poleaxed tonight, got better things to do.
Luv the Mug shots top of page.
Hey Ray you having a bet tomorrow?
I never bet on footy, Stuart, but I reckon Footscray are going to roll Geelong. They’re sick of finishng 3rd or 4th and this time they want a crack at the big one.
Local Journo, just to bring you up to speed, Essendon lost by 96 pts. Adelaide looking very potent.
Adelaide v Essendon (gee that was hard as the game just ended)
Geelong v Western Bulldogs
Brisbane v Carlton Cardboard Cutouts
(sorry Ray)
St Kilda v Collingwood
I hope I’m wrong about that last one. Maybe they are following a plan. It’s a pretty cocky plan if they are though….
So the Saints win their first 19 games (the 19th being the most gutsy win of the lot with 8 top players out against Hawthorn) and sew up top spot with 3 games left to play. They then lose two meaningless games by 2 pts & 5pts before winning in Rd 22 by 47 pts. They finish top with 20 wins, 2 losses, a percentage of 155 and two games clear of Geelong.
And then people say they’ve gone “wobbly”?
Um, the “plan” was not to get injured in Rds 20 – 22 and go into the finals fresh. I could be wrong of course but I think you might see a pretty lively St Kilda on Sunday.
The thought of having to play Adelaide in the following game if they lose should spur both teams on though. Adelaide have now had two consecutive training runs, and will get an eight day break as against a six day break for the loser on Sunday.
Adelaide looked distinctly ominous tonight.
That’s true. The Crows have got it together and will face a side that’s had a hard game. If St Kilda or C’wood go out in straight sets it turns the whole finals series on its head.
Ray if you want I’ll accommodate you with a system 8 quick pick on todays game, for next Saturdays draw. Loser buys and we split the prize money, wanna bet?
Stuart, are you addicted to gambling mate? I only make bets that don’t involve the outlay of any money – like I once bet Leanne that if she was right and I was wrong about something (I forget what it was) I’d make the Sunday brunch. I lost of course – she’s always right.
Just checked on my favourite footy dweeb stats site, AFL Stats –
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/afl_index.html
- St Kilda have played Collingwood four times in finals since and including the ’66 GF, and St Kilda have won all four! They played in ’66, ’72, ’92 and ’08.
Prior to that they lost to Collingwood in the ’66 semi and beat Collingwood in the ’65 Semi, making it 5-1 from their last six meetings.
That’s right Bertus. We have ‘the wood’ on the Woods.
If I am addicted to gambling it’s not as bad as being addicted to some other things. Some people play the stock market. Farmers bet on the weather.
Geelong will unleash today Ray, I bet I’m right and your’e wrong.
Well I’ll bet you breakfast that Footscray wins. I like my eggs sunnyside up.
May the best man win, see ya at 1\2 time
Well how much of an advantage do the Doggies need? Now Rooke is out. If we win this, we can and will beat anyone.
Rooke’s out? The one with the hair and the moustache? What, Geelong’s whole side depends on a guy who looks like he’s auditioning for a 70s porno film? No excuses Baldrick.
you forget to mention that he also rides a motor scooter
The game starts just as I finish work. I’m getting quite excited. Pity my husband hates football.
Woof!
The Bullies will “hang around” in the second half but must now face the Crows.
It’s not over Stuart. Four or five goals down nearing 3/4 time still leaves them in it. They’ll need to finish fast though.
Btw, the loser of this faces Brisbane or Carlton, not Adelaide.
All over. Geelong by 14 – by kicking the ball backwards for the last 3 minutes.
This game should bring about a change to the rules, just like last year’s GF did. I think they need to say that if you kick the ball back into your defensive 50, it’s not a mark, it’s play on.
Anyway, Geelong were too good and Bulldogs missed too many easy shots late in the game.
Very negative football. I hate it. We should have buried them. We were clearly the better team on the day and the only thing we’ll remember most vividly was the rubbish played by Geelong in the last quarter. We’re much better than that.
Footscray was its own worst enemy by not forcing the issue and flooding their back line when we were clearly not interested in attacking.
Scarlett, Enright and Ablett were outstanding. Footscray looked pretty ordinary for most of the match but were let back in by the Cats coasting.
If winning the game is the objective, Geelong succeeded.
Now Rooke and Stevie J to come back in and strengthen the side further. Otto better for the hit-out.
Here endeth the lesson
If we win this, we can and will beat anyone
Well you won it Baldrick and, in the end, it doesn’t really matter how. But do you still stand by your pre-match prediction?
I thought Geelong were ‘adequate’, whereas the Bulldogs were ‘over-awed’ by the occassion.
Good to see the Bombers not getting into any ‘Mad Monday’ drunken brawls. They did it on Friday, after the game!
Now that I’ve opened my big trap and I still owe $5,000, what more have I got to lose? We were adequate and did as much as we had to, but I don’t like that. I’d much rather blow away opposition to make them second guess themselves.
Footscray will come out of this saying we played absolute crap and still managed to get within 14 points. Had we buried them, the psychological edge would have swung from their prematch lip.
On the other hand, as always big question marks over our talls up front, in particular Hawkins.
Each game is different. And yes I do believe we “can” beat anyone, including your lot. Not confident though given these brain freezes.
The thing is, the consequences of losing that game weren’t so bad – a match against Brisbane or Carlton on the MCG next week … no problem for either Geelong or Footscray. So that might explain the rather lack-lustre effort by both sides.
At least it means the Bullies will still (most likely) make it to the preliminary final – against either St Kilda or C’wood.
On the other hand, the loser tomorrow faces a rampaging Adelaide who will have an 8 day break compared to a 6 day break for tomorrow’s loser. It ain’t fair.
Good markinator in the third quarterinator by the Ablettnator, eh…
Opp, wrong thread…..
Well, what did we learn from that lot. Bugger all in my case. I’ve never seen a team squander so many chances in a final. The Swans did it for a half in the ’06 GF but the Dogs just did it for the WHOLE MATCH! Except for two about ten-minute patches.
Crazy stuff. The Cats must be very relieved tonight.
Oh, come to think of it, North in the ’98 GF, where they kicked 2.11 to 1.1 in the second quarter. But even then they got their act together in patches.
The Dogs seemed to have stage fright, they really did.
So Ray the none punter is owed 5 grand from a punter called Balbrick? Please explain. Unless Baldrick is your Misses you’ve lied to me Ray
Carlon tonight, and by the way I like Baked Beans on toast for Brekky.
Baldrick only owes me $5,000 ‘in kind’. He has to mow my lawn every week for the next 2 years. And it’s a bloody big lawn!
I’ll go double or nothing on the Heinz baked beans, Stuart. Brisbane easily.
Bertus, you’re spot on in your assessment of that rather strange game today. I don’t think we can read too much into it – although Geelong getting a two week break is a major concern for the other sides trying to win it.
Oh well, they’re about to kick off in the next ‘Eliminator’. I think Carlton will get Lionatored tonight.
Maybe I’d be better off giving your front lawn a fresh coat of green paint Raymond.
I got the lawn mower serviced this week, Baldrick, so it won’t be long before the lawn returns to its former glory and we can start holding $50 per head ‘steak & wine’ events on it.
Funnily enough I put the mower in on Tuesday for a service and only got it back today. How long does it take to change the oil & blades? Imagine if you put your car in for a service and they said, “no worries, you’ll have it back in 4 days” !
True story.
We’re all square now Stuart, Brisbane in a comeback. Great game to watch.
It was a corker wasn’t it?
Dave, I think Brisbane owes it all to the Ruddernator’s 3/4 time pep talk. He told them to ‘kick it down the guts just like Belinda would’.
Not that it’s going to happen but wouldn’t it be funny if Brisbane looked like a contender for the finals (now puts helmet on head).
Well they’ve got Footscray (the Bulldogs) in Melbourne next week and that one’s not impossible for them. But going any further than that seems unlikely.
It really doesn’t matter though – Voss has dragged Brisbane back and now they’ve won a home final they will just get better over the next few years. The Gold Coast team that joins in 2011 will only serve to make Brisbane a better side too.
From the PM’s Twitter:
Stunning comeback by Lions tonight! Great to be at Gabba. Carlton strong till the end. Any bets on Lions v Bulldogs next Fri? KRudd
It’s Bulldogs v Lions, actually. So the Ruddster wants a bet? … Stuart, you have been called.
He probably wouldn’t settle Ray.
What about your Saints today? My theory is Collingwood won’t know what hit ‘em.
I hope you’re right.
I can’t believe Collingwood are playing Rocca.
I know, I’ve never been a Rocca fan.
As a “mug punter” I can declare the Saints will boost my finances considerably when they win today, 39 plus is a double bonus. Then I’ll put some of my profit on Adelaide to go all the way.
Just heard Judd has been caught gaughing again. Remember Campbell Brown lied and got him off last time.
That’d be “gouging”, Stuart.
Yes, he was actually guilty last time but Brown shot his mouth off afterwards that he lied to protect him. Brown’s got a habit of shooting his mouth off. So I’d say that means this time Judd’s gone for sure.
What about Raf Clarke, he seems lost.
I never thought I’d ever support the Crows, what a weird game footy is.
St.Kilda performed a selfless community service today, congratulations.
And Carna Cats !
Where the hell is my compadre Wah? Am I on my pat malone in this?
Who plays whom now – Dogs/Lions, Crows/Blues?
Footscray v Brisbane and Adelaide v the scum (aka Collingwood) next week Rox.
Blues are gone.
St.Kilda and Geelong one week off.
Rox, the Blues went out in an “eliminator”. It’s Dogs v Lions, Pies v Crows next week.
Great game by the Saints – they took a while to get going but then a bloke named Riewoldt stood up and took the game on.
Btw Stuart, I thought Raph Clark was one of St Kilda’s best.
Great to see Rocca lose his cool and then limp off the ground in the last quarter. Good selection Malthouse!
Crows will deliver the final blow to Collingwood next week – they’re finished.
Yes Baldrick, it looks like a Geelong/St Kilda GF now.
Forgot about Collingwood – it’s so easy to do. I’ll back them against the Crows though.
They can’t win Rox – because now they know that no matter what, they can’t beat St Kilda. They’re stuffed. Crows by plenty.
Football is an illogical thing Ray. I’ll still back the Pies because I don’t like the Crows.
Fair enough. But seriously, do you like the Crows less than Collingwood? I don’t but then again, I’m a Victorian – and over here Collingwood is the ultimate enemy.
I was born in Melbourne and I’ll back nearly any Victorian team over most of the interstate ones. I stick to the Eastern seaboard.